We are excited to share our Q3 2026 Credit Risk Quarterly!
This quarter’s headline numbers look steady, but we see risk building underneath them. Card delinquencies remain elevated, though deterioration in the 2025 vintages has begun to level off. Personal loan delinquencies held flat and auto delinquencies stayed below last year’s levels. At the same time, household pressures persist: real earnings slipped, the saving rate fell, and auto payments hit new highs. Lenders are also adding near-prime and subprime exposure and growing personal loan originations before the data has caught up. This quarter’s edition also includes a bonus section on transformer models in credit underwriting, covering where adoption stands and when they outperform traditional approaches.
If you have questions on the report or would like to discuss recent industry trends, please reach out to any of our authors: Ben Peters, Luke Fitzpatrick, Hainan Xiong, Isaac Du, or Scott Barton.